中信证券：232关税落地促铜价回归 后续有望恢复稳健上行

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented a 50% import tariff on copper products, while exempting refined copper and copper raw materials, leading to significant fluctuations in COMEX copper prices [2][3][9] - The unexpected exemption of refined copper from tariffs has resulted in a narrowing of the COMEX-LME price spread, with COMEX copper prices experiencing a notable decline [3][4] - The anticipated "siphon effect" in the U.S. market may have already been realized, and concerns about inventory returning to the U.S. are premature, suggesting that copper prices may stabilize and rise due to tight supply and improving global economic conditions [2][5][9] Group 2 - The 232 tariff is expected to benefit Chinese copper processing companies by creating higher product premiums in the U.S. market, stimulating demand for domestically produced copper products [7][9] - U.S. refined copper imports have surged, with a 130% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2023, indicating a high dependency on imports [4][5] - The copper processing market in the U.S. shows a significant import dependency, with nearly 30% of copper semi-finished products being imported, which could lead to price premiums for domestic products if tariffs are applied [4][5]