Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Group's strong non-interest income performance and better-than-expected asset quality have led to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025E and 2026E by 30.6% and 21.2% to $5.01 billion and $4.80 billion respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2Q25 adjusted operating income was $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2Q25 was $1.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.7%, exceeding both the company's and market expectations due to strong non-interest income [2][3] Group 2: Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income increased by 33% to $2.8 billion, with a contribution of $240 million from the sale of equity in Solv India, while excluding this, non-interest income still showed a 22% year-on-year growth [3] - Financial market services revenue grew by 47.2% year-on-year in 2Q25, driven by demand for interest rate and currency hedging amid market volatility [3] - Wealth management revenue in 2Q25 rose by 20.1%, primarily from affluent clients in overseas markets such as India, Hong Kong, and the Middle East [3] - The strong performance in non-interest income has prompted the company to revise its revenue growth guidance for 2025 from "below 5%" to a lower limit of "5%-7%" [3] Group 3: Net Interest Income - Net interest income was in line with expectations, remaining flat year-on-year but decreasing by 3% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the decline in HIBOR [4] - The adjusted net interest margin was measured at 2.03%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9 basis points [4] - The company plans to continue increasing structural hedging in the second half of the year, with guidance indicating a single-digit year-on-year decline in net interest income for 2025 [4] Group 4: Operating Expenses and Asset Quality - Operating expenses in 2Q25 grew at a rate lower than revenue growth, with the company maintaining guidance for 2026 operating expenses to be below $12.3 billion [5] - Credit costs were annualized at 16 basis points in 2Q25, slightly increasing but still at a low level, with guidance suggesting a gradual return to normalized credit costs of 30-35 basis points [5] - The company expressed confidence in the quality of its exposure to the Hong Kong commercial real estate market, with local real estate exposure amounting to approximately $2 billion, representing less than 50 basis points of overall risk exposure [5] Group 5: Dividends and Buybacks - The company has nearly completed the $1.5 billion buyback announced with the 2024 annual report and has declared a new $1.3 billion buyback, maintaining guidance for a total of at least $8 billion in buybacks from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The company aims to gradually increase the annual dividend per share and maintain a return on tangible equity (ROTE) close to 13% by the end of 2026, with plans for further increases thereafter [6]
中金：升渣打集团(02888)目标价至158.8港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级