3.4%！美元指数迎来今年首个月度上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, positive economic data, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, marking the first monthly increase since President Trump took office [1][4]. Economic Performance - In July, the dollar index rose by 3.4%, recovering from a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, which was the worst performance since 1973 [3][4]. - The dollar index reached a low of 96.37 in early July, the lowest since February 2022, before climbing to a high of 100.09 by the end of the month [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5]. - The Fed's hawkish position and the resilience of the US economy have contributed to the dollar's strength, with the year-to-date decline narrowing to 7% [4]. Trade Policies - President Trump's recent executive order established "reciprocal" tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from various countries, which has reduced uncertainty surrounding trade policies [5]. - The narrowing of the US trade deficit by 10.8% to $86 billion in June, along with a 4.2% decrease in imports, reflects a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent dollar rebound, some institutions maintain a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar index, citing concerns over extreme valuations and potential market shocks [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current dollar strength may be a temporary adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall downtrend, with expectations of renewed weakness if the Fed signals future rate cuts [9]. Future Outlook - Market participants are generally expecting a moderate increase in the dollar over the coming months, contrasting with previous bearish sentiments [6][8]. - The resilience of US economic data and the lack of readiness from the Fed to cut rates are seen as supporting factors for a stronger dollar [8].