智通财经网·2025-08-01 02:01Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MGM China (02282) is expected to see an increase in adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion respectively, due to the opening of villa products [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 7x EV/EBITDA for 2025, and the target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 19.80, indicating a 27% upside potential compared to the current stock price [1] - MGM China's Q2 2025 performance showed net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.511 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%, recovering to 172% of Q2 2019 levels, outperforming consensus expectations [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the robust results from MGM Macau and MGM Cotai, with total gaming revenue recovering to 100% and 214% of Q2 2019 levels respectively [1] - The total gaming revenue market share increased to 16.5% in Q2 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [1] Group 3 - The management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with stable market share and profit margins, and expects continued strong performance during the summer [2] - The strong market share is primarily driven by the trial operation of the Alpha villa targeting ultra-high-end customers, which is expected to officially open before the National Day Golden Week in 2025 [2] - The total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in Q2 2025, with a monthly increase, and approximately 17% in June 2025, driven by visitor volume and high-end customers [2]