标普全球：低油价将重创部分产油国经济

Core Insights - The report by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that countries in the Middle East and Africa reliant on oil economies will face severe fiscal challenges due to low oil prices by 2025, with only the UAE and gas-rich Qatar able to achieve fiscal balance at current oil price levels [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil averaged $101 per barrel in 2022, but prices are constrained in 2023 due to increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries, weak market demand, U.S. tariffs, and OPEC+ ending voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - Analysts predict that the average Brent crude oil price will be $68 per barrel in 2025, with the year-to-date average as of July 16 being $71.79 per barrel [1] Group 2: Fiscal Breach and Vulnerabilities - Low oil prices will adversely affect the fiscal health of weaker oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa, including Gabon, Angola, Nigeria, Iraq, and Oman [1] - Gabon requires an oil price of $117 per barrel to achieve fiscal balance, while the UAE only needs $42 per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven oil price is $93 per barrel, Nigeria's is $86 per barrel, and Iraq's is $99 per barrel [1] Group 3: Specific Country Risks - Iraq faces the highest risk due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues for budgetary needs, with foreign reserves projected to decline from $102.3 billion at the end of 2023 to $70 billion by the end of 2025, potentially triggering emergency policy interventions [2] - Angola, which plans to exit OPEC in 2024 due to production quota disputes, can only cover 90% of its debt repayment costs at an oil price of $68 per barrel, raising bankruptcy risks [2] - Nigeria's 2025 budget is based on an oil price assumption of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, but actual production in June was only 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating potential fiscal strain [2] - Oman may experience its first fiscal deficit since 2021 and has planned to introduce income tax for high earners starting in 2028 to mitigate low oil price impacts [2] Group 4: OPEC+ Production Adjustments - Since April, eight OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts have announced plans to quickly increase their quotas, aiming to restore full production by early October, adding downward pressure to an already struggling oil market [3] - Only Saudi Arabia has begun executing its production increase plan, and if other countries follow suit, a supply surplus may emerge in the oil market by year-end, further depressing oil prices [3]