Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-01 02:28Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oil and gas enterprise in China, focusing on stabilizing oil production and increasing natural gas output to enhance its competitive edge during oil price cycles [1] Group 1: Natural Gas Business - The company is actively promoting cost reduction and volume increase in its natural gas business, achieving a steady growth rate of approximately 5% in natural gas production over the past decade [1][3] - The optimization of the imported gas resource structure is ongoing, with an expected increase of 5 billion cubic meters in pipeline gas supply after the completion of the China-Russia East Line in December 2024 [1] - A projected decrease of $10 per barrel in oil prices could lead to a reduction of approximately 18 billion yuan in the company's imported gas procurement costs, enhancing its profitability resilience [1][3] Group 2: International Expansion - The company has secured a 70% stake in the Suriname 14/15 block, which is located in the "golden belt" of the Suriname-Guyana basin, expected to be a new growth engine for oil and gas production [2] - Despite potential downward pressure on oil prices due to global supply dynamics and the expansion of low-cost production in South America and Africa, the long-term price floor is anticipated to remain above $60 per barrel [2] Group 3: Olefins and Ethylene Production - The company is experiencing a recovery in the olefins market, with a focus on self-sufficient ethane supply, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage [2] - Current ethylene production capacity stands at 1.4 million tons per year, with additional planned capacity of 2.4 million tons per year from the Tarim Phase II and Hohhot projects, all relying on fully self-sufficient ethane [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 158.5 billion, 161.7 billion, and 168.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.7%, 3.0%, and 1.9% respectively from previous estimates [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected at 0.87, 0.88, and 0.92 yuan, with target prices set at 10.01 yuan for A-shares and 8.60 HKD for H-shares, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4]