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交银国际:维持新东方-S(09901)目标价46港元 评级“买入”
智通财经网·2025-08-01 03:29

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 46 for New Oriental-S (09901) and a "Buy" rating, while adjusting revenue and operating profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 downward by approximately 3% and 17% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue growth is expected at 10% and 14% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 respectively, with an operating profit margin projected at 10.2% and 10.5%, showing a slight increase compared to fiscal year 2025 [1] - The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 saw a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expectations of CMB International and other institutions, which were 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), education and cultural tourism revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with an education operating profit margin of 6.5%, up 410 basis points from the same period last year due to effective cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] Group 2: Business Segments and Market Outlook - The guidance for the first quarter was below expectations primarily due to seasonal factors, but growth is expected to recover in the second to fourth quarters [1] - The management's guidance for fiscal year 2026 indicates a group revenue increase of 5-10%, compared to the market expectation of 12%, with the main adjustment being a downward revision of the growth forecast for overseas-related business to a decline of 5% [1] - The growth rate for K12-related business is maintained at the market expectation of 19% [1] Group 3: Valuation Methodology - CMB International has adjusted its valuation method to SOTP, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for K12 business and 8 times for study abroad business for fiscal year 2026, corresponding to profit growth rates of +22% and -10% respectively [1] - The company is accelerating cost optimization efforts, aiming to achieve stable or slightly increased operating profit margins for the entire year [1]