日本央行加息在即 10月或终结负利率政策

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is likely to initiate interest rate hikes by the end of 2023 due to persistent inflation exceeding expectations [1] - Recent inflation performance has led the Bank of Japan to significantly raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.5% during the July policy meeting [1] - The removal of the downward risk language in inflation forecasts indicates a significant increase in confidence among decision-makers regarding sustained price increases [1] Group 2 - A virtuous cycle of wage growth and inflation is forming, with structural changes in corporate pricing behavior reinforcing the basis for monetary policy normalization [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy rate from the current -0.1% at the October policy meeting, marking the first rate hike since 2007 [1] - The central bank is anticipated to adopt a gradual tightening path while closely monitoring the potential impact of economic slowdowns in the US and Europe on Japan's external demand [1] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has reached a high near previous peaks, with short-term upward momentum approaching overbought territory [2] - The MACD indicator is consistently above the zero line, with the fast line (DIFF) at 0.908, higher than the slow line (DEA) at 0.784 [2]