智通财经网·2025-08-01 06:16Core Viewpoint - The long-term demand growth for polyester filament is relatively stable, with the peak of industry production capacity expansion having passed, leading to a more orderly supply in the future under the self-discipline of leading companies. The current price spread of polyester filament remains at a historically low level, indicating potential for upward correction [1] Supply - The capacity growth of polyester filament is gradually slowing, with the market share of leading companies increasing. The industry saw significant capacity expansion in recent years, particularly among leading enterprises, with the CR4 reaching 60.2% in 2024, an increase of 18.3 percentage points since 2019. The actual capacity is expected to decline for the first time in 2024, indicating a more orderly supply increase in the future [2] Demand - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The export volume of polyester filament is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2017 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in the first half of 2025. The demand is anticipated to strengthen seasonally as the peak season begins in August [3] Cost - The supply and demand outlook for raw materials is weak, with the prices of PX and PTA closely linked to oil prices. The import dependence of PX is expected to decrease from 60.8% in 2018 to 20.0% in 2024, while PTA is shifting from net importer to net exporter. Although oil prices are supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties, the expectation of global oil inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2025 may limit upward price movement [4] Profitability - The polyester filament industry has a solid foundation of self-discipline, with leading companies implementing measures such as "production limits to maintain prices" and "coordinated operating rates" since May 2024. The price spread of polyester filament has rebounded from the lows of 2023, demonstrating strong profitability resilience, especially amid complex international trade conditions [5] Investment Targets - Companies to watch include Xin Fengming (603225.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) [6]