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Prediction: This Wildly Popular Growth Stock Could Underperform Over the Next Decade
The Motley Foolยท2025-08-01 07:45

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has experienced significant growth, rising 340% in 2024 and more than doubling in 2025, leading to a market capitalization of approximately $372 billion, raising concerns about its valuation relative to its financial performance [2][3][9]. Financial Performance - Palantir's first-quarter revenue increased by 39% year over year, surpassing the previous quarter's growth rate of 36%. Customer accounts also grew by 39% year over year, and earnings per share doubled [6]. - The company's quarterly adjusted free cash flow reached $370 million, up from $149 million in the same period last year [6]. - Management has projected fiscal 2025 adjusted income from operations between $1.711 billion and $1.723 billion, with adjusted free cash flow expected between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion [7]. Valuation Concerns - Palantir's market capitalization of over $370 billion is significantly higher than its expected full-year sales of about $3.9 billion, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 656, which is considered excessively high [9]. - The price-to-management's guidance for fiscal 2025 adjusted income from operations stands at 218, indicating a premium valuation that may not be sustainable [9]. - The rapid increase in stock price compared to the underlying business growth raises concerns about potential underperformance in the future [10].