Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-01 08:25Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling international oil prices and increased competition in the oil and petrochemical markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2025H1, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201-216 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% to 43.7% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the projected net profit is between 68-83 billion yuan, down 52.1% to 60.7% year-on-year, and a decline of 37.2% to 48.5% compared to Q1 2025's net profit of 133 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Production and Operational Data - In 2025H1, the total oil and gas equivalent production reached 263 million barrels, a 2% increase year-on-year, with oil production at 140 million barrels (down 0.3%) and natural gas production at 208 billion cubic meters (up 5.1%) [2]. - The company processed 120 million tons of crude oil in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel production also declining [2]. - Ethylene production increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons, while synthetic resin production rose by 12.8% to 11.04 million tons [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Regulations - The government is implementing a nationwide crackdown on illegal gas stations and enhancing regulation of fuel consumption taxes, which is expected to increase industry concentration [3]. - The reform of fuel consumption taxes will create a more equitable competitive environment for legitimate businesses, potentially benefiting state-owned oil companies with better supply chains and sales networks [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 502, 604, and 723 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting the negative impact of declining oil prices [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for A shares are projected at 14.5, 12.1, and 10.1 times, while for H shares, they are 10.1, 8.4, and 7.0 times [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a bottoming out of oil prices and accelerated progress in fuel consumption tax reforms [4].