金价处于弱势盘整状态 非农是救星还是补刀

Core Viewpoint - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. July non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide insights into the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with expectations, with a majority of committee members supporting this stance. The language in the statement has shifted to reflect ongoing economic uncertainty [2] - The ADP Research report indicates an increase of 104,000 jobs in July, surpassing the expected 76,000 and reversing the previous month's decline of 33,000 jobs [2] - The annualized GDP growth rate for the second quarter is reported at 3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.6%, and reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% [2] Employment Data Expectations - The July non-farm payroll is projected to increase by 110,000, a decrease from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - A non-farm payroll figure below 100,000, coupled with a rising unemployment rate, could indicate a weakening job market, potentially dampening hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [3] - Conversely, if the non-farm payroll exceeds 150,000, it may support a stronger dollar and diminish the likelihood of two interest rate cuts this year [3] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, facing resistance around the $3,320 level. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further downside risks [4] - The 100-day moving average provides initial support around $3,270, with a potential target of $3,240 if this level is breached [4] - Indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest a weakening bearish momentum, but no clear reversal has been established yet [4]