交易员反向押注欧央行降息 200万欧元期权博2500万回报

Group 1 - Traders are positioning through options strategies in anticipation of a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut, which could yield significant returns if the policy is implemented in the coming months [1] - Large bets have been placed this week related to options linked to the three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), indicating strong market interest in potential rate changes [1] - If the ECB lowers the benchmark rate from the current 2% to 1.5% by December and maintains it until March next year, related investments could generate over €25 million (approximately $28.5 million) in profit, with a cost of only about €2 million [1] Group 2 - The ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that after a cumulative 200 basis points cut to the deposit rate within a year, policymakers may enter an observation period, yet the market still sees a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut by year-end [1] - The monetary market's expectations for the interest rate path have shown volatility, with a previous prediction of a 1.5% rate by year-end shifting due to recent inflation indicators in parts of France and Germany [4] - A Bloomberg survey revealed that 20% of economists expect the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2025, while others are split between maintaining the rate at 2% or reducing it by 25 basis points to 1.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in rate expectations [4]