疲软非农数据提振降息预期 美债收益率回落

Core Viewpoint - The weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for July has significantly increased the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability rising from 38% to 55% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July fell short of expectations, prompting traders to adjust their forecasts for monetary policy [1] - The futures market now reflects a 55% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, short-term U.S. Treasury yields experienced a significant decline, signaling a re-evaluation of the monetary policy outlook [1] - Long-term Treasury yields, which had previously risen due to President Trump's latest tariff measures, also fell in response to the employment report [1]