美国7月非农仅7.3万人，前两月数据暴力下修，9月降息希望重燃

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the smallest gain since October of the previous year, and well below the market expectation of 110,000 [3][4] - The revisions for previous months were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined [4] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the average hourly earnings year-over-year increased to 3.9%, the highest since March, slightly exceeding the expected 3.8% [4] Group 2 - The healthcare sector led job growth in July, adding 55,000 new positions, while the social assistance sector contributed an additional 18,000 jobs [4] - Federal government employment continued to decline, with a reduction of 12,000 jobs in July, reflecting ongoing layoffs in the "government efficiency department" [4] - The report was characterized as a game-changer for the labor market, indicating a rapid deterioration, although it has not yet reached crisis levels [5] Group 3 - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to 73%, up from approximately 40% prior to the non-farm report [5] - The uncertainty stemming from President Trump's tariff policies has led U.S. companies to reduce hiring, with recent increases in tariffs on Canada and other countries contributing to this trend [5] - The report has prompted significant market reactions, including a spike in spot gold prices and a drop in the U.S. dollar index [4]