Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of copper tariffs in the U.S. has led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, with a decline of over 18% on the announcement day and nearly 30% from the peak on July 24 [1][2]. Market Reaction - The market had anticipated a 50% tariff on refined copper, which resulted in a substantial premium for COMEX copper over LME and Shanghai copper. However, the final announcement excluded refined copper from the tariff, leading to a rapid correction in prices [2][3]. - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between U.S. copper and LME copper narrowed to approximately $150 per ton, indicating a return to more normalized pricing [3]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of July 30, COMEX copper inventories reached 255,948 short tons, the highest level since 2004. This high inventory level is expected to persist, as it may take around six months to digest the current stock without considering exports [4]. - The potential for U.S. copper to flow back into the market is limited in the short term, as domestic demand and pricing dynamics will dictate the timing of any exports [4]. Global Copper Market Outlook - The global copper supply remains tight, with low processing fees and reduced production forecasts from key mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - Despite the current supply constraints, demand is weakening, particularly in the off-season, leading to an accumulation of copper inventories [5]. - Future copper prices are expected to remain volatile but may trend slightly upward due to supply limitations, with extreme price levels potentially reaching 84,000 to 85,000 yuan per ton [6]. However, short-term downward pressure exists due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar [6].
【财经分析】“铜关税”落地 美铜大幅回落后库存何时回流市场？
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-01 13:59