Marriott to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Insights - Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, with earnings expected to be $2.64 per share, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous year [1][2][10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is $2.64, indicating a growth of 5.6% from $2.50 reported in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected at nearly $6.7 billion, suggesting a rise of 3.5% from the year-ago quarter [2] Performance Drivers - The second-quarter performance is likely to benefit from strong group bookings, international RevPAR momentum, and growth in fee-based income [3] - Global demand, particularly in the APAC, EMEA, and CALA regions, is expected to bolster RevPAR, with notable growth in markets like India and Japan [4] - Marriott anticipates gross fee revenues to rise 3%-4% year over year, supported by steady RevPAR trends and increased co-branded credit card fees [5] Strategic Focus - The company's asset-light expansion strategy and conversions are expected to aid performance, with a focus on global signings and contributions from the citizenM acquisition [6] - The group travel segment is projected to be a key driver, with bookings increasing by 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 [6] Financial Projections - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise 3%-5% year over year, supported by international strength and disciplined cost control [7] - Total expenses are expected to increase by 5.4% year over year to $5.5 billion [11] Challenges - Persistent softness in the U.S. and Canada, particularly related to government travel and select-service demand, may negatively impact domestic RevPAR trends [8] - Renovation activities at select properties may exert pressure on incentive management fees, with a predicted decline of 60% year over year in residential branding fees [9] - Cost inflation and foreign exchange volatility may pose additional challenges [9]