美国消费者信心连续第二个月上升 但整体乐观程度仍处历史低位

Core Viewpoint - In July, U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month, but overall optimism remains at historically low levels, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing by 1.6% to 61.7, the highest since February of this year, yet down 7.1% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Index - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence regarding the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and willingness to spend, with a monthly release of preliminary and final values [3]. - The Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) rose nearly 5% to 68.0, marking the highest level since January, while the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) slightly declined to 57.7, the first drop since April [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the current index of 61.7 is significantly below the average of 84.4 since 1978, indicating a low level of consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation and Trends - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has a moderate monthly fluctuation average of 3.1 points, with the current 1.0 point change being considered mild [4]. - The index is correlated with U.S. GDP, with a three-month moving average trend aligning with economic fundamentals [4]. - The survey indicates that consumer sentiment changes are more closely related to economic conditions rather than political party affiliation [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% in June to 4.5%, the lowest since February, although still higher than post-election levels [8]. - Long-term inflation expectations also fell for the third month in a row from 4.0% in June to 3.4%, the lowest since January, yet still elevated compared to the end of last year [8].