今夜，黑天鹅！全崩了！

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a significant downturn on August 1, with European stocks dropping over 2% and the U.S. stock market also facing substantial losses, including the Dow Jones falling over 600 points, the Nasdaq declining over 2%, and the S&P 500 dropping more than 1.6% [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000. Additionally, previous months' data were revised downwards, indicating a troubling trend in employment growth [7]. - The average non-farm employment growth over the past three months was only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the pandemic began [7]. Federal Reserve Response - The weak employment data and new tariff policies have increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September rose from approximately 40% to nearly 90% following the release of the employment data [10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time was met with dissent from two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, a situation not seen since 1993 [10]. Tariff Impact - The updated tariff policies announced by President Trump, which include rates ranging from 10% to 41% and an additional 40% on goods circumventing tariffs, have negatively impacted market sentiment [11]. - The most shocking development was the increase in tariffs on imports from Canada, the U.S.'s largest trading partner, from 25% to 35% [12]. Market Sentiment - The combination of weak employment data and new tariffs has led to a sell-off in the markets, with analysts expressing concerns about the potential for negative employment growth in the coming months, raising fears of an economic recession [9][12].