Caterpillar is Set to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is expected to report year-over-year declines in both earnings and revenues for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings projected at $4.88 per share, reflecting an 18.5% decrease from the previous year, and revenues estimated at $16.35 billion, indicating a 2% decline [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT's second-quarter 2025 earnings has decreased by 0.41% over the past 60 days [2]. - CAT's earnings surprise history shows that it outperformed estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.90% [3]. - The projected operating margin for Q2 is expected to shrink to 18% from 22.4% in the same quarter of 2024, with adjusted operating income anticipated to decrease by 21% year-over-year to $2.95 billion [5][10]. Segment Analysis - The Resource Industries segment is projected to see external sales of $2.97 billion, a 4.7% decline year-over-year, with an expected operating profit of $575.8 million, down 19.8% [11][12]. - The Construction Industries segment's external sales are estimated at $6.32 billion, reflecting a 5% decline, with an operating profit projected at $1.23 billion, indicating a 29% decrease [12][13]. - The Energy and Transportation segment is expected to report external sales of $6.21 billion, a 2.1% increase year-over-year, with an operating profit of $1.6 billion, suggesting a 5.8% rise [14][15]. Market Position and Valuation - CAT's stock has increased by 36.5% over the past year, outperforming its industry, which declined by 34%, and the broader market indices [16][17]. - The current forward 12-month P/E ratio for CAT is 21.57X, which is higher than the industry average of 20.44X and also exceeds the valuations of competitors like Komatsu, Terex, and Manitowoc [18]. Strategic Outlook - Despite current market challenges, long-term demand for Caterpillar is supported by increased infrastructure spending and a shift towards clean energy [22]. - The company is focusing on expanding service revenues, which typically yield higher margins, and has a strong balance sheet to support growth initiatives [22]. - Tariffs on imported goods may enhance demand for U.S.-manufactured products, positioning Caterpillar to benefit from this trend [22].