美国能源转型“停摆”

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. energy policy under the government has shifted focus towards traditional energy sources, particularly oil and gas drilling, while significantly reducing support for the clean energy sector, marking an end to the previous era of clean energy growth [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Trump administration's energy policy aims to terminate the "Green New Deal" and revive traditional energy industries, especially oil and gas production [1]. - A series of executive orders were signed to roll back climate change initiatives, including the cancellation of significant environmental regulations and halting funding for clean energy projects [1][2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed in July 2025 eliminated various clean energy incentives, signaling a systemic shift in U.S. energy policy [1]. Group 2: Impact on Clean Energy Sector - The clean energy sector, once thriving, is now struggling due to the abrupt policy changes, with many projects facing delays or cancellations [2]. - Over half of the nearly $30 billion clean technology projects planned for 2025 are at risk of being postponed or scrapped [2]. - Standard & Poor's Global Insights predicts that the "Big and Beautiful" bill could lead to a 20% reduction in clean energy projects in the next decade [2]. Group 3: Historical Context - The current situation mirrors past energy policy shifts, such as the termination of solar initiatives under President Reagan after Carter's promotion of renewable energy [3]. - Historical patterns indicate that U.S. energy policy often lacks continuity, leading to wasted investments across different administrations [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Challenges - The supply side faces challenges due to the long construction cycles and slow returns on investment for fossil fuel infrastructure, with drilling activity at a four-year low [4]. - On the demand side, the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence sector is expected to increase electricity consumption significantly, putting additional pressure on the energy supply [5]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The shift in energy policy is likely to hinder the transition to clean energy, with solar and wind industries being the biggest losers [6]. - Predictions indicate that the removal of clean energy subsidies will lead to a rise in electricity prices, with wholesale prices expected to increase by 25% by 2030 and 74% by 2035 [6]. - The reversal of U.S. energy policy undermines global climate governance efforts, potentially jeopardizing international climate agreements [7].