“黑天鹅”来袭，全线下跌

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has triggered global market turmoil, leading to declines in both U.S. and European stock markets [1][6]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.23% at 43,588.58, the S&P 500 down 1.60% at 6,238.01, and the Nasdaq down 2.24% at 20,650.13 [2]. - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 2.92%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.36%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.17% [2]. - European markets also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 2.66%, France's CAC40 down 2.91%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.70% [2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. labor market data shows a significant slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [6]. - Revisions to previous months' data revealed a sharp downward adjustment, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to just 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [6]. - This data suggests a rapid deceleration in the labor market, raising concerns about a potential recession [6]. Federal Reserve Response - The weak labor market data has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, especially in light of the new tariffs [7]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation risks, particularly with the backdrop of new tariffs imposed by President Trump [6][7]. Tariff Details - President Trump signed an executive order to raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, with new reciprocal tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries [7][8]. Oil Market Impact - International oil prices fell sharply, with U.S. crude down 2.89% to $67.26 per barrel and Brent crude down 3.00% to $69.55 per barrel, driven by concerns over the labor market and OPEC+ production increases [9][10]. - OPEC+ has increased production significantly, with a total increase of 1.8 million barrels per day since May, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [10]. Precious Metals and Bonds - On August 1, international precious metals futures saw gains, with COMEX gold up 2.01% to $3,416.00 per ounce and silver up 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce [11]. - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 25.49 basis points to 3.698% and the 10-year yield down 14.62 basis points to 4.220% [11].