26万非农就业凭空蒸发！美国统计体系陷信任崩塌：调查回复率跌破60%

Core Viewpoint - The latest employment report indicates a significant downward revision in U.S. job growth data, marking the largest adjustment since the pandemic, which alters the recent labor market landscape [1] Group 1: Employment Data Revision - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that non-farm employment numbers for May and June were revised down by nearly 260,000, primarily due to seasonal adjustment issues and a general trend of low response rates [1][4] - The revisions were heavily concentrated in the education sector of state and local governments, which accounted for about 40% of the total adjustment [4] Group 2: Response Rate Concerns - The response rate for statistical surveys has been declining, with initial collection rates dropping below 60%, compared to the pre-pandemic norm of around 70% [4][5] - The lack of data and concentrated late reporting increases the risk of larger-than-expected revisions, as noted by the president of Inflation Insights [4] Group 3: Impact of Government Policies - The decline in response rates may also be influenced by rapid policy changes in Washington, which could further degrade data quality [6] - The BLS has indicated that about 15% of data in its consumer price index sample has been suspended from collection due to resource constraints [5]