市场恐慌阴霾再起，美股对冲成本飙升预警下行风险

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.8%, marking its worst single-day performance since April, driven by fears of economic downturn due to tariff policies and disappointing job growth [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "Wall Street Fear Index," surged to nearly 20, indicating increasing market pressure [1] - The cost of hedging against a potential 10% decline in the S&P 500 index ETF has reached its highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting heightened concerns among investors [1] Group 2 - Following a 25% rise in the S&P 500 index since early April due to tariff impacts, investors are now seeking risk protection for the upcoming two months, particularly as the historically poor-performing months of August and September approach [3] - Data from Deutsche Bank indicates that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding stock long positions at the 94th percentile, the highest level since January 2020, suggesting confidence in the market but also potential for sharp reversals if conditions change [3] - Investor anxiety remains primarily focused on the short term, with the skewness indicator for S&P 500 options rising but still below levels seen before the April downturn [3]