中信证券：AI是半导体产业最大驱动力 云端看国产替代 终端看下游增量

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, driven primarily by AI demand, with industrial sectors recovering alongside consumer electronics [1][2] Group 1: AI as the Driving Force - AI is identified as the largest driving force for the semiconductor industry, with global semiconductor growth entering an upward cycle since Q2 2023, particularly in North America, which is experiencing around 20% growth due to AI infrastructure [2] - Domestic semiconductor companies are expected to benefit significantly from AI developments, particularly through cloud-based domestic replacements and downstream growth in terminal applications [2][7] Group 2: Cloud-Based Domestic Replacement - Advanced processes are crucial for domestic computing power, with a focus on the entire domestic computing power supply chain, particularly in advanced processes, computing chips, advanced storage, and upstream equipment [3] - Domestic advanced process suppliers, such as SMIC, are expected to strengthen their market position, with a significant improvement in profitability anticipated as they expand production [3] - The domestic market for advanced storage is projected to grow, with HBM expected to exceed 30% of DRAM output by 2025, and enterprise SSDs seeing a domestic production rate of approximately 35% in 2023 [3] Group 3: Terminal Growth and Hardware Upgrades - The acceleration of AI applications is expected to create substantial incremental demand, particularly in AI-related hardware such as AI phones, AIoT, and smart driving technologies [4] - Key areas for hardware upgrades include main control chips, storage solutions, and sensors, with specific attention to the growth of AI glasses and 3D DRAM as critical components [4] - The demand for automotive cameras is projected to reach 130-140 million units by 2025, reflecting a nearly 60% year-on-year growth, with local manufacturers expected to gain market share [4] Group 4: Industry Consolidation and Capital Support - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming a significant trend in the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies moving from a fragmented market to a more consolidated one, particularly in equipment, analog, and EDA sectors [5] - The IPO process for semiconductor companies has accelerated, with 14 companies having their IPO applications accepted since Q4 2024, indicating an improving financing environment [5] - The overall tightening trend in semiconductor financing is reversing, allowing leading domestic firms to accelerate development and pursue global market opportunities [5]