特朗普关税大棒将美国关税推至二战以来最高水平，如何影响美国经济和消费？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the trade war and tariff increases initiated by the Trump administration are detrimental to all parties involved, with no winners in a protectionist environment [1][10] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the implementation of various tariffs and retaliatory measures [1][4] - Experts indicate that the current tariff policies violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, particularly the most-favored-nation principle, which prohibits discrimination among trading partners [1][10] Group 2 - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a 1.8% increase in price levels by 2025, resulting in an average loss of $2,400 per household [7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods is significant, with projected price increases of 40% for shoes and 38% for clothing in the short term [7] - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, with a long-term economic contraction of 0.4% [8] Group 3 - The tariffs are anticipated to increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025, with a total job loss of approximately 497,000 positions [8] - The manufacturing sector may see a 2.1% increase in output due to tariffs, but this growth will be offset by declines in other sectors such as construction and agriculture [8] - The global trade system may undergo significant restructuring due to the U.S. tariffs, with potential demand shocks affecting economies worldwide [10][11] Group 4 - Recent data from the WTO indicates a 3.6% increase in global goods trade volume in Q1 2025, driven by anticipations of U.S. tariff hikes, although growth is expected to slow later in the year [11] - The World Bank forecasts a significant reduction in trade growth for developed economies, with projections for 2025 being halved compared to earlier estimates [11] - The U.S. experienced a 25% increase in imports in Q1 2025, but growth slowed to just 1% in the following months, highlighting the volatility in trade dynamics [11]