【新华解读】全球货币政策开始分化：发达经济体坚持克制 多家新兴经济体选择降息

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market experienced significant events in July, with central banks in developed economies maintaining a cautious stance while emerging market central banks opted for rate cuts to stimulate their economies [1][6]. Group 1: Developed Economies Central Banks - In July, several developed economies' central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Canada, decided to pause interest rate cuts amid ongoing external risks and economic uncertainties [2][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly paused rate cuts, with a vote of 6 in favor and 3 against, indicating internal divisions regarding further easing [2]. - The European Central Bank also paused its rate cuts, with market expectations suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut in September if trade negotiations fail [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Economies Central Banks - In contrast, several emerging market central banks, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Russia, implemented rate cuts to boost economic growth [6][7]. - Malaysia's central bank cut its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking its first rate adjustment in two years [6]. - Turkey's central bank significantly reduced its benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43%, while Russia's central bank lowered its rate by 200 basis points to 18%, both actions exceeding market expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy between developed and emerging economies is increasingly influencing international investors' expectations and strategies [8]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to become attractive investment destinations in the second half of the year due to global economic slowdowns and policy divergences [8]. - The future market trends will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, geopolitical developments, and the economic resilience of emerging markets [8].