【环球财经】墨央行调查预测墨2025年经济与通胀同步上升

Core Viewpoint - The latest survey by the Bank of Mexico indicates an upward adjustment in the economic growth forecast for 2025 from 0.13% to 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of improvement in growth expectations [1] Economic Growth Expectations - The Mexican Ministry of Finance has a more optimistic forecast for 2025, predicting economic growth between 1.50% and 2.30% [1] - The upward revision in growth expectations reflects a gradual improvement in the economic outlook [1] Inflation Projections - The year-end inflation rate forecast has been raised to 4.11%, the highest level since September 2024, and has increased for four consecutive months [1] - The persistent inflationary pressure is expected to limit the monetary policy flexibility [1] External Challenges and Currency Impact - Despite external challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., the depreciation of the peso is seen as a factor that may help mitigate the rising export costs [1] - The Ministry of Finance believes that the peso's depreciation can partially offset negative impacts, allowing for moderate economic growth [1] Policy Considerations - Experts suggest that the low growth forecast of 0.2% is significantly below macroeconomic potential, and the inflation expectation above 4% will constrain monetary policy options [1] - Future decisions by the Bank of Mexico will need to balance between interest rate cuts and controlling inflation, while fiscal policy must enhance support for the sluggish growth to avoid a dual trap of economic stagnation and rising prices [1]