美国关税税率创1934年以来最高，美股或承压

Core Insights - The average effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on imported goods has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, as of July 31 [1][4][3] - Short-term consumer price increases are expected, with shoe prices potentially rising by 40% and clothing prices by 38% [1][4] - The U.S. economy may experience a slowdown, with GDP growth rates projected to decrease by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026 due to tariff policies [4] Tariff Impact - The new tariffs will lead to an increase in average household spending by $2,400 by 2025, significantly affecting clothing items [4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 due to the tariffs [4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have already seen a significant decline, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion in a single day [2][6] - Gold prices surged, with spot gold increasing by 2.22% to surpass $3,360, and COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to exceed $3,400 [2] Export License Delays - There is a significant backlog of thousands of export license applications due to internal chaos within the approval agencies, marking the worst delays in over 30 years [8] - Delays in license approvals are putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage globally [8] International Trade Relations - The U.S. has imposed "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on products from 69 trade partners, with specific rates for different countries [5][9] - Despite threats from the U.S. administration, India continues to import cheap oil from Russia, indicating ongoing tensions in trade relations [9]