招商宏观：非农数据断层 9月降息预期回归

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for July significantly underperformed expectations, with a notable downward revision of previous values, suggesting a faster cooling of labor market demand compared to supply. The government sector shifted from a contributor to a detractor, while manufacturing and business services showed weakness [1]. Employment Data - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, falling short of the market expectation of 104,000. The previous month's data was drastically revised down from an initial 147,000 to just 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months [1][2]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month [1][3]. Sector Performance - The government sector recorded a loss of 10,000 jobs, with federal government job losses expanding to 12,000. The manufacturing sector also saw a decline of 11,000 jobs, while business services lost 14,000 jobs [2][4]. - In contrast, the retail sector added 16,000 jobs, and healthcare and social assistance saw an increase of 73,000 jobs [2][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 62.2%. The participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) fell to 83.4% [3]. - The U3 unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, while the broader U6 unemployment rate rose to 7.9% [3]. Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - Hourly wage growth continued to slow, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4]. - Following the release of the non-farm data, the U.S. dollar index fell back to around 98.9, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury note dropped by 22.6 basis points to approximately 3.7% [4].