Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-03 01:40Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Hailiang Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the U.S. tariff policy on copper products, leading to a profit growth that may exceed market expectations [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, which was beyond market expectations. The tariff does not apply to upstream raw materials like copper ore and cathode copper, which is favorable for companies engaged in copper deep processing in the U.S. [2][3]. - Hailiang's U.S. factory, acquired in 2016, has a designed capacity of 100,000 tons, with an expected production scale of 30,000 tons by 2024. By the second half of 2025, the capacity is projected to reach 90,000 tons, with an estimated output of 70,000-80,000 tons by 2026 [2][3]. - The tariff is expected to increase industry demand and processing fees, leading to profit growth for Hailiang's U.S. operations. The company anticipates a recovery in net profit from a loss of 35.08 million yuan in 2024 to a significant increase in 2026 [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to the unexpected tariff, the company has revised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 1.57, and 1.97 yuan per share, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 14.4, 7.6, and 6.1 times [3]. - The estimated market value of Hailiang is expected to reach 36-45 billion yuan by 2026, representing a potential increase of 50-90% from its market value of 23.8 billion yuan on August 1 [3].