再现“最热7月”，滚滚热浪会加重今夏日本的大米危机吗？

Core Insights - Japan is experiencing a severe rice crisis exacerbated by extreme heat, with rice prices rising by 48% year-on-year due to the heatwave affecting crop yields [1][6] - July 2023 marked the hottest July on record in Japan, with an average temperature 2.89 degrees Celsius above normal, leading to widespread heat warnings [3][5] - The extreme weather conditions are contributing to inflationary pressures, with the Bank of Japan adjusting its inflation forecasts upward due to rising food prices, particularly rice [8] Weather Impact - The Japan Meteorological Agency reported record high temperatures, with some areas exceeding 41 degrees Celsius, leading to increased instances of heat-related illnesses and deaths [3][4] - The early end of the rainy season and the "heat dome" phenomenon are identified as key factors contributing to the extreme heat [5] Agricultural Consequences - The heatwave has severely impacted rice-growing regions, leading to water shortages and affecting crop growth, with reports of farmers struggling to cultivate crops like azuki beans [6] - The average price of rice in Japan has surged, with a 5-kilogram bag reaching prices between 4268 and 4285 yen, more than double the previous year's price [6] Market Dynamics - Despite a temporary decline in rice prices, the overall demand for rice in Japan has exceeded government forecasts, leading to a continuous supply-demand imbalance [7] - The Japanese government has released 360,000 tons of reserve rice to stabilize prices, but the market remains volatile [6][7] Economic Implications - Rising food prices, particularly rice, are becoming a significant driver of inflation in Japan, with the core consumer price index (CPI) expected to rise to 2.7% by March 2026 [8] - The Bank of Japan is reassessing its monetary policy in light of persistent inflation pressures, which are being fueled by soaring food prices [8]