全球贸易史上的黑暗一天

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The new tariff rates will increase to 15% for most countries and regions, with some major trade partners receiving lower rates between 10% and 20% due to investment commitments to the U.S. [2] - Countries that did not make sufficient concessions in recent negotiations face significantly higher tariffs, such as Canada at 35% and Brazil at 50% [4] Group 2: Historical Context - The new tariffs will raise the U.S. actual tariff rate to 17%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1933, which exacerbated the Great Depression [5][6] - The actual tariff rate was only 1.2% last year, indicating a dramatic shift in trade policy that could reshape multinational production and trade cost structures [7] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are becoming the largest "taxpayers" under the new tariff regime, with tariff revenue soaring to $27 billion in June, nearly four times that of the previous year [8] - Companies like Ford and Hasbro are already adjusting their financial forecasts due to increased costs from tariffs, with Ford estimating an additional $800 million in expenses [9] Group 4: Consumer Impact - Retail giants like Walmart and Target are currently managing costs through inventory but are expected to raise prices as tariffs take effect, with a significant portion of manufacturers already beginning to pass on costs [9][10] - The inflationary effects of the tariffs are anticipated to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of next year, impacting consumer prices directly [10] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The new tariffs are expected to erode corporate profits and market confidence, leading to potential cuts in investment and hiring by U.S. companies [10] - The overall economic impact is still being assessed, but early signs indicate that the tariffs are reigniting inflation and could slow economic growth [10]