国际能源署三季度报告预计—— 今明两年全球天然气需求先抑后扬

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global natural gas demand is expected to recover structurally in 2024, but growth may slow to 1.3% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, with accelerated growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - In the first half of this year, global natural gas consumption grew by only 1% year-on-year, primarily driven by Europe and North America, with European consumption increasing by 6.5% and North American demand rising by 2.5% [1] - Asian natural gas demand has been weak, with India's consumption declining by 7% in the first five months of the year due to reduced industrial usage, and the Eurasian region experiencing a 2% drop in consumption due to an unusually warm winter in Russia [1] Group 2 - Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply increased by 12 billion cubic meters, or 4%, in the first half of this year, with expectations of a 5.5% increase in supply, approximately 30 billion cubic meters, by 2025 [1] - The interruption of gas transit through Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 led to a 45% year-on-year decline in Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU, with a projected annual reduction of about 13 billion cubic meters [2] - European LNG imports surged by 25% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 92 billion cubic meters in the first half of this year, driven by increased storage demand [2] Group 3 - The report anticipates a 7% growth in global LNG supply in 2026, amounting to approximately 40 billion cubic meters, primarily from the U.S., Canada, and Qatar's North Field expansion project [3] - Global natural gas consumption is expected to reach a historical high in 2026, with demand growth projected to accelerate to around 2%, driven by industrial and energy sectors contributing nearly 50% of the global demand increase [3] - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to see natural gas demand growth exceeding 4% in 2026, while European demand is projected to decline by 2% due to the rise of renewable energy sources [3]