公募机构看好后市 均衡配置应对行业轮动

Core Viewpoint - The public fund institutions generally believe that the A-share market is likely to experience a volatile upward trend in August, suggesting a balanced allocation to cope with market fluctuations and sector rotations, while focusing on dividend assets, undervalued technology stocks, and "anti-involution" cyclical investment opportunities [1][2]. Market Outlook - As of the end of July, over 90% of actively managed equity funds have achieved positive returns this year. Despite potential short-term adjustments due to increased domestic and international disturbances, the positive changes in the funding environment support a relatively optimistic market trend. The high growth of household savings combined with an "asset under-allocation" environment indicates strong demand for high-return assets, suggesting a positive cycle of capital inflow and market performance [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - From a fundamental perspective, fiscal policy is gaining momentum, and consumer sectors are showing resilience, with total demand expected to improve marginally in the second quarter. The support of active fiscal policies is anticipated to maintain stable total demand in the second half of the year, reducing the likelihood of economic downturns. The current low-interest-rate environment continues to favor equity assets, with incremental capital feedback effects likely to emerge, supporting an upward trend in the index [3][4]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - Investment opportunities are recommended in three main lines: 1. Industry trends, focusing on technology growth recovery, with potential catalysts in AI, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals 2. Policy guidance, increasing attention to domestic consumption sectors benefiting from policy support, as well as "anti-involution" sectors like new energy 3. In a low-interest-rate environment, dividend assets remain a solid choice [4]. - The current market sentiment is at a high level, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy to manage potential volatility and rapid rotations. Key areas of focus include dividend assets and undervalued technology stocks [4]. - For the Hong Kong stock market, investment directions include leading technology and internet companies, consumer recovery (both discretionary and non-discretionary), biomedicine and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as high-dividend assets [4].