台积电消费应用接单转淡 第4季营收恐无法再创高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the impact of U.S. tariffs is leading to a conservative consumer outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations that demand for terminal products like PCs and smartphones during the year-end holiday season may not meet expectations [1] - TSMC's orders related to consumer applications are weakening, and there are concerns that TSMC's revenue in Q4 may decline from the historical high in Q3, marking the first time in nearly a decade that Q4 performance may not exceed Q3 [1] - Approximately 40% of TSMC's terminal applications are in the consumer sector, which is being affected by tariffs and economic changes, leading to a slowdown in growth for the peak season in Q4, although it is still expected to outperform the same period last year [1] Group 2 - TSMC's revenue in the first half of the year increased by about 40% year-on-year, with Q4 revenue estimated to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, averaging $32.4 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline despite being better than the same period last year [2] - The estimated decline in Q4 revenue is projected to be in the high single to mid-double digit percentage range compared to Q3 [2]