下半年货币政策如何发力稳增长？降准降息均有空间 结构性工具聚焦重点

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to focus on promoting economic recovery while balancing risks and maintaining liquidity [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Focus - The monetary policy will likely aim to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society and support economic structural adjustments [1][4]. - Key areas of focus for monetary policy include supporting technology innovation, boosting consumption, aiding small and private enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Challenges - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target of 5% [3]. - The external environment remains complex, with challenges in domestic demand, insufficient quality supply, and a mixed outlook for foreign trade [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Financial Institutions - The net interest margin for commercial banks hit a record low of 1.43% in Q1, with large banks at 1.33%, which may limit the space for interest rate cuts [2][4]. - The macro leverage ratio is projected to rise to 300.4% by Q2 2025, driven by slowing nominal GDP growth [2]. Group 4: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes the need for effective execution of monetary policy measures and improving the transmission of these policies to key sectors [6]. - There is potential for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in the second half of the year, depending on financial and inflation data [4][5].