中金：美股风险溢价为何能如此低？

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that despite challenges faced by the U.S. stock market in early 2023, it has managed to recover and reach new highs, supported by three macro pillars: AI technology, fiscal expansion, and global capital rebalancing [1][4][39] - The U.S. stock market's risk premium has reached historically low levels, with the Nasdaq's risk premium remaining negative since May 2023, indicating a strong investor demand for equities despite rising interest rates [4][6][7] - The decline in risk premium is primarily attributed to the rapid increase in interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve in March 2022, which has led to a significant drop in the equity risk premium [9][11][21] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural differentiation within the U.S. stock market, highlighting that the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks has significantly outpaced the broader market, contributing to the overall low risk premium [39][41] - The risk premium for the top 20 performing stocks is notably lower than that of the remaining 480 stocks, indicating a concentration of risk and performance within a small number of high-growth companies [41][46] - The article suggests that as long as the advantages of leading tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector, continue, the low risk premium in the U.S. stock market can be sustained [38][46] Group 3 - The article proposes that the reasonable level of risk premium for the S&P 500 could still have slight room for decline, with potential index levels projected between 6200 and 6400 based on current economic conditions and interest rate expectations [52][58] - It emphasizes that adjustments in the calculation of risk premium, considering relative interest rates and the contribution of overseas investors, indicate that the perceived low risk premium may not be as low as it appears [30][36][38] - The analysis concludes that the ongoing "asset scarcity" globally and the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities will likely support the current market dynamics, despite potential short-term volatility [38][58]