一夜之间股债天翻地覆! 非农引爆降息预期卷土重来 美债“牛市陡峭化”席卷华尔街

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. non-farm payroll report has reignited expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant rally in U.S. Treasury prices after a month of declines [1][2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking a historic downward revision of 90% [1][2]. - This weak employment data has led traders to heavily bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with futures markets pricing in an 84% chance of a cut next month, up from less than 40% before the report [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market reacted strongly, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping over 25 basis points, the largest decline since December 2023, indicating a significant price rebound [6][7]. - The yield curve steepening strategy, which involves betting on the widening spread between short-term and long-term yields, has become attractive again for investors following the employment report [6][7][8]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Market participants are now anticipating multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, with expectations for cuts in September, October, and December [8][12]. - The pricing in the interest rate swap market suggests a cumulative cut of 61 basis points by December, with aggressive traders betting on a repeat of last year's rate cut scenario [12][13]. Group 4: Broader Market Sentiment - The weak employment data has shifted market sentiment, moving away from the "bad news is good news" narrative that previously supported equity valuations, as the focus returns to the negative implications of economic weakness [16][17]. - Institutional investors have been major buyers of U.S. Treasuries following the employment report, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and positioning [17][18].