“欧佩克+”同意大幅增产石油，券商：远期累库预期限制油价上行高度

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, completing its current supply recovery plan a year ahead of schedule to regain market share [1] - The increase in production is approximately 548,000 barrels per day, reversing the previous reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day in August [1] - This marks the fourth consecutive month that OPEC+ has announced a production increase, which is expected to drive global oil supply expectations upward [1] Group 2 - In July, the average monthly prices for Brent and WTI were $69.5 and $67.2 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively compared to the previous month [3] - As of July 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels compared to the end of June, totaling 42,669 million barrels [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties and the peak consumption season are providing support for oil prices, but expectations of future inventory accumulation are limiting the upside potential for prices [3] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth of 3.0% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which is an upward revision from previous forecasts [3] - Based on these economic projections, Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $68 to $72 per barrel in the near term [3]