Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced fluctuations in July, closing at $3289.71, with a monthly decline of $12.85 or 0.38%, indicating a potential critical point for a breakout in the range of $3250 to $3430 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration created uncertainty in global trade, initially boosting market risk aversion and supporting gold prices [2][3]. - As trade agreements were reached between the U.S. and other countries, risk aversion decreased, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and a subsequent pullback in gold prices [2][3]. - The announcement of new tariffs raised concerns about inflation and economic activity, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data released in July showed fluctuations in market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting gold price movements [3]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose, but weaker Producer Price Index (PPI) data led to a spike in the probability of a September rate cut to 70%, which subsequently fell to 45% after the Fed maintained rates [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Historical data indicates that gold prices in August have shown no clear trend, with limited downside potential estimated between $3257 and $3191, while upside potential could reach $3543 or $3355-$3438 based on past performance [4][5]. - Key price levels to watch include $3250 for potential support and $3450 for resistance; a breakout above $3450 could lead to a surge towards $3500 [5][6]. - The gold price has been in a broad trading range of $3245 to $3450 for two months, with a likelihood of continued oscillation until a decisive breakout occurs [5][6].
第四次冲击3450美元,8月份金价能否形成突破?
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-04 03:41