Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the steel market showed signs of recovery with significant increases in both raw material and finished product prices, with raw material prices rising more than finished products [1] - For August, the market sentiment is expected to stabilize following an important meeting, leading to reduced capital inflow and insufficient upward momentum [1][17] - Despite being a traditional off-season, demand for steel has shown unexpected resilience, with inventory levels remaining low [1][17] Group 2: Production and Capacity - As of July 31, the operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased significantly to 45.45%, up 9.09 percentage points month-on-month, while blast furnace operating rates rose slightly to 78.59% [2] - Steel production data indicates that the total weekly output of construction steel reached 3.2782 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.49% [3] - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in July was slightly less than in June, with a mixed impact across different steel varieties [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - In July, steel consumption saw a slight decline, with construction steel demand decreasing by 3.6% month-on-month, while expectations for August indicate a narrowing of the decline [6][8] - The construction sector's steel usage fell by 2.7% in July, with a projected further decline of 1.6% in August [8] - Overall, the apparent consumption of construction steel increased to 3.2171 million tons in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [10] Group 4: Inventory Levels - By the end of July, total steel inventory shifted from a decrease to an increase, remaining significantly lower than the same period last year [12][13] - The total inventory of construction steel reached 6.9966 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% [13] Group 5: Profitability - In July, the profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased, while electric arc furnace mills saw a rapid recovery in profits, with the profit per ton for blast furnace steel at 201 yuan and for electric arc furnace steel at -112 yuan [15][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel market in August is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation, with demand showing signs of marginal recovery but still in a downward trend [17][19] - The supply side is expected to remain resilient, with electric arc furnace production increasing and blast furnace operations maintaining profitability [17][18]
中国经济观测点丨预期与现实博弈深化 8月钢市预计震荡运行
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-04 05:22