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审慎看待能源需求预测与转型争议
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-08-04 06:11

Core Viewpoint - The contrasting predictions from OPEC and IEA regarding future energy demand highlight significant differences in their confidence about the energy transition process, with OPEC forecasting a continued reliance on fossil fuels while IEA anticipates a peak in oil demand by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: OPEC's Perspective - OPEC warns that to ensure sufficient supply, global investments in oil and gas must reach $18.2 trillion by 2050 [1]. - OPEC predicts global oil demand will rise to 123 million barrels per day by 2050, significantly higher than current levels [1]. - OPEC views China as a major energy market due to its rapid economic growth, suggesting continued high demand for oil and gas [2]. Group 2: IEA's Perspective - IEA maintains that oil demand will peak before 2030, projecting a demand of 104.4 million barrels per day by 2050, which is roughly stable compared to current levels [1]. - IEA expresses strong confidence in the transition to renewable energy, suggesting that certain regions have already seen oil demand plateau [1]. - IEA believes that wind and solar power will quickly replace natural gas in electricity generation, although this view is contested by OPEC [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The differing predictions from OPEC and IEA reflect broader market uncertainties regarding the pace and impact of energy transition [1][2]. - Both organizations provide evidence to support their forecasts, yet real-world outcomes often do not align with their extreme predictions [2]. - The ongoing competition in the IT sector is expected to drive global electricity demand, which may sustain the role of natural gas in the energy mix, contrary to IEA's expectations [2].