降息进入倒计时！英国央行该如何应对通胀预期升温、薪资高企

Core Viewpoint - Despite the consumer price inflation rate in June reaching nearly double the central bank's 2% target, the market widely expects the Bank of England to lower the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4% on Thursday, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1] Global Context and Outlook - Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, UK inflation surged, peaking at 11.1%, largely due to its heavy reliance on natural gas for heating and power generation. Inflation significantly decreased in 2023, projected to bottom out at 1.7% in September 2024, but is expected to rebound stronger than in the US and Eurozone. The June inflation rate rose to 3.6%, the highest since January 2024, with some economists predicting it will soon exceed 4% [2] Inflation Expectations - Most Bank of England officials view inflation expectations from businesses and households as crucial indicators for future price trends, wage demands, and the central bank's credibility. These expectations have been rising over the past year, with the Citigroup/YouGov long-term expectations index nearing its highest level since late 2022, while the central bank's own survey reached a new high since 2019. However, some officials believe these surveys reflect reactions to recent inflation rather than predictions of future behavior [5] Domestic Inflation Stickiness - Despite a significant drop in overall inflation in 2023, two key indicators of long-term domestic price pressures remain elevated: service price inflation, heavily influenced by labor costs, and core CPI, which excludes volatile factors, both consistently above overall inflation. Additionally, food and beverage prices, which greatly affect public inflation perception, especially among low-income groups, are accelerating [8] Wage Growth Trends - The annualized regular wage growth in the private sector has decreased from over 8% two years ago to just below 5%, yet it remains approximately 2 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels and well above the 3% benchmark deemed compatible with the 2% inflation target. The central bank and surveyed employers expect wage growth to further slow to 3% over the next 18 months, but the decline has not been steady, and rising unemployment and reduced job vacancies may not ensure a rapid cooling of wages as anticipated [11] PMI Cost Pressure Indicators - The S&P Global July Purchasing Managers' Index indicates that UK businesses are "strongly" raising prices. Although the rate of price increases has decreased compared to 2022, the current increase remains above pre-pandemic levels. Over the past year, costs in both the service and manufacturing sectors have risen significantly, which, if passed on to consumers, could elevate prices [14]