反内卷题材交易暂告段落 PVC期价将承压运行

Industry Overview - As of July 31, the PVC production capacity utilization rate increased to 76.84%, up 0.05% week-on-week and 3.64% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization rate decreased to 76.03%, down 3.22% week-on-week and 0.28% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 78.99%, up 8.71% week-on-week and 14.68% year-on-year [1] - Recent maintenance activities at various plants, including UHV Chemical and Erdos, along with the resumption of operations at Qilu Petrochemical and others, contributed to the slight increase in PVC capacity utilization [1] Cost Analysis - The cost of calcium carbide in UHV is quoted at 2200 CNY/ton, while the price of medium coal is 605 CNY/ton, and ethylene is priced at 820 USD/ton, indicating stable cost conditions [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guangzhou Futures, with the continuous rise in prices, the profit margins for PVC and caustic soda plants are recovering, leading to increased operational enthusiasm among companies, which is expected to result in a production rebound in August [2] - However, new capacity from Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons) and Fujian Wanhua (500,000 tons) is anticipated to exert supply pressure, while downstream operations remain low due to high temperatures [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures noted a slight increase in supply due to the resumption of operations at several plants, maintaining overall supply at high levels compared to the same period last year. The downstream production rate saw a minor rebound, particularly in pipe manufacturing, but overall demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing real estate sector challenges [3] - Inventory levels are fluctuating, with upstream factory inventories decreasing while social inventories are increasing. Cost factors such as calcium carbide and ethylene prices remain stable, but there is insufficient valuation support [3]