Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, closing at 8838.00 CNY per ton, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume for July 1-31 is estimated at 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared to 1,195,265 tons in the same period last month [2] - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.19% month-on-month for July, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, resulting in a production increase of 7.07% compared to the previous month [2] - Indonesia's statistics bureau indicated that from January to June, Indonesia exported 11 million tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oil, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of the year rose by 22.2% year-on-year [2] Market Sentiment and Forecast - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the external palm oil supply and demand fundamentals are weak, leading to insufficient upward momentum in the domestic palm oil market, with increased technical selling pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that high-frequency data shows a month-on-month recovery in Malaysian palm oil production in July, while export performance remains weak, leading to expectations of increased inventory and negatively impacting palm oil performance. The ample supply of domestic soybean oil, driven by high previous imports, has resulted in lower prices for soybean oil in China, creating a substitution risk for palm oil demand and raising concerns about future export levels from producing regions. The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [3]
棕榈油出口表现疲软 短期存在继续回落的可能
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-04 08:13