供需承压 预计甲醇期货价格震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2390.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhonghui Futures, the recovery of previously shut down facilities and increased operational loads of overseas methanol plants are raising supply-side pressure expectations [1] - Recently, facilities from Ningxia Baofeng and Hualu Hengsheng (600426) are under maintenance with no recovery yet, while next week, maintenance at Gansu Huating, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Shanxi Lubao methanol plants is expected to conclude [1] - Overall operational loads of overseas facilities remain high [1] Demand Side - According to Ruida Futures, the restart of the Zhongmei Mengda olefin plant last week has led to an increase in operational loads, while Zhejiang Xingxing's plant is still offline, slightly boosting the olefin industry's operational rates [1] - Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to resume operations this week, indicating potential for further increases in the olefin industry's operational capacity [1] Inventory - As of July 31, coastal methanol inventories stood at 915,000 tons, which is above the historical average, having increased by 45,000 tons (5.17%) compared to July 24, and down 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that the "anti-involution" trend is cooling, leading to a correction in industrial products [1] - The rising coal prices provide some support for methanol, but the restart of facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits are putting pressure on supply and demand [1] - The 2509 contract is approaching its delivery month, aligning closely with spot market logic, and prices are expected to remain weak and volatile [1]