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新季丰产预期渐强 玉米盘面价格上方有一定压力
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-04 08:13

Group 1: Market Data - The USDA reported private exporters sold 125,000 tons of corn to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 marketing year, with the U.S. corn marketing year starting on September 1 [1] - As of July 27, the corn good-to-excellent rating was 73%, down from 74% the previous week, but still the best for this time of year since 2016, and higher than last year's 68% [1] - The top producing state, Iowa, had a good-to-excellent rating of 87%, up from 86% the previous week [1] Group 2: Drought Monitoring - As of July 29, 7% of U.S. corn was in drought areas, down from 9% the previous week and up from 5% the same time last year [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with consumption continuing to recover and port inventories quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure [3] - There has been a sharp reduction in corn imports from January to June, with high import margins suggesting potential for increased imports in the future [3] - The current strong spot prices for corn indicate that near-term contracts may have support at lower levels, and there are opportunities to consider out-of-the-money call options [3] Group 4: Price Dynamics - According to Greeen Dahan Futures, short-term price pressure on corn may arise due to the inverted pricing of wheat and corn in Shandong [4] - Mid-term expectations for new season corn trading are increasing, with a year-on-year decrease in planting costs putting pressure on long-term contract expectations [4] - Long-term pricing logic remains focused on import substitution and planting costs, with a key emphasis on policy direction [4]