【黄金期货收评】关税滞美联储政策受缚 沪金日内上涨1.36%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased market risk aversion [1] - On August 4, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 777.17 yuan per gram, which is a discount of 4.25 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 781.42 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The market's focus is shifting towards U.S. economic growth expectations and labor market demand, despite a second-quarter GDP growth of 3% exceeding the expected 2.5% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was slightly below expectations, indicating ongoing inflation risks [2] - The PCE index showed a year-on-year increase in June, suggesting a rebound in inflation [2] Group 3 - Haitong Futures suggests that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation concerns due to tariff impacts, limiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options [3] - If market risk aversion continues, gold prices are expected to rise, potentially leading silver back into an upward trend [3] - The forecast for COMEX gold prices is between $3,200 and $3,500, with a strategy to buy gold and silver on dips [3]