基本面仍具备较强支撑 沪铜价格维持高位

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices exhibited a "stepwise" increase driven by "cost push + macro disturbances," despite some concerns regarding demand [1] - The tight supply of copper ore and regional supply constraints have been the main factors supporting the resilience of copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic smelters and overseas miners have agreed on a processing fee for copper concentrate at zero dollars per ton for 2025, significantly lower than the $21.25 per ton in 2024, indicating widespread expectations of long-term supply tightness [2] - The current tightness in copper resources is attributed to insufficient prices to stimulate large-scale new investments, with the "stimulus price" estimated between $10,000 and $12,000 per ton [2] - Global copper ore grades have declined to an average of 0.4%, with some mines dropping to 0.2%, while exploration costs are rising and new project investments are lacking [2] Group 3: Production and Recycling - In June, domestic electrolytic copper production reached 1.1356 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.54% and a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [3] - The total supply of domestic scrap copper in 2024 is projected to be 6.5248 million tons, with domestic scrap accounting for 4.275 million tons, or 65.52% [3] - The domestic scrap copper recovery and production are expected to enter a seasonal downturn in the third quarter due to high temperatures and equipment maintenance [3] Group 4: Demand Outlook - Copper consumption demand is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the second half of the year, with the power sector being the main growth driver [4] - The State Grid's investment is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 8%, which could lead to an estimated copper consumption of 5.85 million tons from grid projects [4] - China's power engineering investment is estimated at about 1.93 trillion yuan in 2025, with an expected copper consumption of 3.86 million tons [4] Group 5: Automotive and Air Conditioning Markets - In the first half of the year, China's automobile production and sales both surpassed 15 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44.3% of total sales [5] - The air conditioning industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with domestic sales expected to enter a seasonal peak in the third quarter, while exports face uncertainties due to international trade tensions [5] Group 6: Market Fundamentals - Despite macro uncertainties, the fundamentals for copper remain strong, supported by tight ore supply, high investment in electricity, and policy-driven automotive consumption [6][7] - The domestic demand is highlighted as a market bright spot, with fiscal policies expected to stimulate copper consumption by approximately 1.9 million tons in the power sector alone [7] - The tight supply of copper concentrate due to aging mines and insufficient exploration investment is expected to persist in the short term [7]